Colorado Rockies 2025 preview
After losing 100 games for the first time in franchise history, the Colorado Rockies followed it up by losing 100 games for the second time in franchise history. It is a very hard time to be a Rockies fan, as the Dodgers are changing the financial game in Major League Baseball and the Giants, Diamondbacks, and Padres all range from very good to pretty good.
Colorado hasn’t had a winning season since 2018 and only has two winning seasons since 2010. But, things weren’t as bad as they’ve been the last three seasons, with Colorado finishing 43, 41, and 37 games out of first place and in last place in the division in three consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history.
In fact, last season also represented the fewest runs scored in a 162-game season in franchise history, which dates back to 1993. After setting a franchise record for pitchers and total players used in 2023, the Rockies used one fewer pitcher and three fewer players in 2024. This is an organization with virtually no direction and a true inability to compete in the NL West for the foreseeable future.
Free agent arms don’t want to go to Colorado and frugal owner Dick Monfort won’t overpay them to do so. Hitters are worried about the optics of playing half of their games at Coors Field for future earning potential. Player development is very difficult, given the elevation. While Triple-A Albuquerque is a good proving ground, going from Hartford, Spokane, or Fresno to 5,000+ feet in elevation makes the developmental path extremely difficult.
The best thing that could happen to the Rockies this season is that 2023 first-round pick Chase Dollander and 2024 first-round pick Charlie Condon stay healthy.
2025 Colorado Rockies Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 18)
World Series: +500000
NL Pennant: +25000
NL West: +25000
Win Total: 58.5 (-105/-115)
Make Playoffs: Yes +3000 / No -10000
Colorado Rockies Preview: Offense
In the past, I’ve written about the Coors Field Effect. The cliff notes version is that hitters do get a boost in Denver because of the thin air. There is less resistance on the path of the ball to home plate and less resistance on the flight of the ball after contact. As a result, you get pitches with less movement and also get more distance on batted balls.
However, when the Rockies go on the road, pitches move more. Their hitters strike out more often. Pitchers have more trouble with their control. It is not an ideal scientific phenomenon in a game like baseball, where the margin for error is very thin.
The Rockies were fifth in wOBA at home at .332, batting .267/.331/.437 with a 24.7% K%. By wRC+, which is park-adjusted, so it does take into account favorable or unfavorable hitting environments, the Rockies were still 13% below league average with a mark of 87.
On the road, the Rockies were 29th in wOBA at .279, batting .217/.275/.364 with a 29% K%. wRC+ doesn’t really take into account the inverse Coors Field Effect, but their 77 mark in that category clearly fits how poor they were on the road, especially with that ballooned K%. The next highest road K% was the Pirates at 26.1%. The Rockies also only walked 6.6% of the time on the road compared to 8.4% at home.
Given that the only noteworthy free agent acquisitions on the position player side are part-timers in Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer, it sure seems like more of the same is in store. Two of the top five in plate appearances are gone, as Charlie Blackmon retired and Brendan Rodgers was non-tendered. Rodgers, a 2015 first-round pick, just never panned out and the Rockies accepted failure. Blackmon was a good player for a while, but he wasn’t a good player anymore.
In some ways, this could be addition by subtraction for the Rockies, who can better optimize their defensive profile. They do have two elite defenders in Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar. Doyle actually had a breakout offensive season with 23 HR to go with 30 SB. so did Michael Toglia, who hit 25 homers in 458 PA. Add in Ryan McMahon and the top half of this lineup has four guys that should hit 20+ homers.
Unfortunately, Kris Bryant looks like one of the worst contracts in baseball and Colorado doesn’t have many exciting prospects that are all that close. This will once again be a lineup that strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk often, and will showcase some stark home/road splits.
Colorado Rockies Preview: Pitching
The ceiling for the Rockies pitching staff is elevated a bit this season with the return of German Marquez. Marquez made four starts in 2023 and just one in 2024 on July 14. Marquez returned from Tommy John surgery only to experience a stress fracture in his repaired right elbow. With 6-to-8 weeks on that recovery timeline, the Rockies just shut him down for the season.
Marquez owns a career 4.42 ERA with a 4.04 FIP and a 3.70 xFIP, as he’s definitely fallen victim to the hardships or pitching for the Rockies. He’s a ground ball guy who used to have stronger strikeout rates. To be honest, the best-case scenario this season is that Marquez pitches well enough to be traded to a contender, as this is the final year of his two-year, $20 million extension. If Marquez can emerge as one of the better arms available at the Trade Deadline, the Rockies can get a good piece or two for the future.
Marquez isn’t the only returnee, as Antonio Senzatela should be back full-time after making just three starts last season. Unfortunately, like rotation mates Austin Gomber and Kyle Freeland, he is a below-average arm. The only good returning arm for the Rockies based on last season’s performance is Ryan Feltner, who had a 4.49 ERA with a 4.31 xERA and a 4.16 FIP. He led the team in fWAR with 2.4, twice as much as any other hurler. Feltner actually had a 5.36 ERA with a .282/.339/.434 slash against and a .336 wOBA against in 102.1 innings in the first half before finishing on a high note with a terrific September. He had a 1.78 ERA over 30.1 innings.
Ultimately, though, the Rockies are likely to have five average or worse starters. And this was the worst bullpen in baseball by ERA and second-worst by FIP. No bullpen had a lower K% and the Rockies were the only relief unit under 20%. With no notable additions there, it looks like another year of being in the running for the worst bullpen in baseball. Luis Peralta is a name to follow, though, after a midseason trade with the Pirates for Jalen Beeks.
Colorado Rockies Player to Watch
1B/OF Michael Toglia
One success story for the Rockies last season was Toglia, the team’s 2019 draft pick out of UCLA. He hit 25 homers and had 44 Barrels in his first full MLB season. Toglia did strike out a lot (32.1%), but offset that by drawing a high rate of walks (11.8%) and Defensive Runs Saved loved his profile at first base with a +10 mark.
Toglia’s home/road splits were odd, to say the least. He hit 17 of his 25 home runs on the road in two more plate appearances. Normally, you see Rockies hitters with extreme splits the other way. His minor league numbers suggest some sustainability to the three true outcomes approach, as he had a .247/.349/.485 slash with 452 K in 1,672 PA (27% K%), 221 BB (13.2%), and 86 homers. Like fellow Rockie Sam Hilliard, who swung through a ton of pitches in the zone, Toglia helps formulate an offense that will strike out a lot, but run into the occasional mistake.
Colorado Rockies Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
The Rockies were actually 8-5 against the Padres, but 10-29 against the Diamondbacks/Dodgers/Giants. They were beaten by 5+ runs on 40 different occasions. Frankly, they probably should have been a worse team than they were, posting a 26-21 record in one-run games. They went 37-44 at home despite a -76 run differential, which equates to a 33-48 Pythagorean Win-Loss record.
The tough part about playing an Under this low is that you know they’re going to be awful on the road (24-57 last year), but they find ways to win enough games at home to avoid 100 losses more often than not. Well, except for the last two seasons, but they were 61-101, so they barely went over this number last season. I’d lean towards the Under more than the Over here, as Marquez, Feltner, and even Freeland could all possibly be traded.
Stronger Lean: Under 58.5
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