USA vs. Canada 4 Nations Face-Off Final Prediction and Preview:
Here are my best bets for Thursday’s USA vs. Canada matchup in the 4 Nations Face-Off Final.
Canada (-110, 5.5) vs. USA
8 p.m. ET (ESPN, Sportsnet)
The anticipation for Thursday’s championship game between Canada and the USA is off the charts. Canada coach Jon Cooper said it best on Tuesday, “Nothing’s done more for hockey in a decade than what this tournament’s done.” Will we see three fights in the opening nine seconds like we saw to start Thursday’s game in Montreal? From Canada’s Sam Bennett, “the messages were sent in the last game. This game is about winning.”
Both teams go into Thursday’s game missing a key element of their blueline. Canada has had to deal with the loss of Shea Theodore since the early minutes of their opening game against Sweden. Team USA will be without Charlie McAvoy for a second consecutive game. On Tuesday, it was announced that McAvoy was admitted to a Boston hospital due to an infection. Don’t underestimate the loss of McAvoy, whose five hits included a couple of jarring body checks on Connor McDavid. McAvoy’s five hits were as many hits as the other five blueliners combined.
Quinn Hughes, who had to bow out of the tournament due to injury, has been added to the roster but can only play if one of the current six defensemen on Team USA is unable to play on Thursday due to an injury. On Tuesday, Hughes was on the ice with the Vancouver Canucks practicing in a non-contact jersey and stated that, as of no,w he has no plans to travel to Boston for the game unless a spot opens due to another injury.
Team USA’s Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk both practiced on Wednesday after missing Monday’s game, but Brady Tkachuk was not on the ice. “He’s saving everything he has for tomorrow night,” said Matthew on his brother, Brady.
Here is how I would attack this game from a betting perspective. Let’s start with two prop bets that are a combined 12-0 in the tournament. We had a goal scored in the first 10 minutes and at least two goals scored in all six games. I see no reason that the two trends come to a halt in the Championship game. I also like both teams to score in the first period. It happened in their first meeting on Thursday and all three USA games have seen both teams score in the opening 20 minutes.
On to the player prop bets. Tops on my list is Zach Werenski (USA), who is tied with Sidney Crosby atop the 4 Nations playoff scoring race with five points. All five of Werenski’s points have been assists and I will continue to grab the “plus money” on his assist prop. Nathan MacKinnon has 14 career goals against Connor Hellebuyck (and tied for the tournament lead with 3), and Connor McDavid has 11, including the lone Canada goal in Thursday’s game against Team USA. While there is value in playing their goal props, I am electing to go the safer route and play them in parlay to both record a point at plus money.
For those of you on the fence when it comes to betting on either Canada or the USA, keep this in mind. The designated home team is 0-6 in the tournament. Team USA is considered the home team for the Championship game.
Best Bets: 1st period Over 1.5 (-109) – 1.5 units
Goal 1st 10/Yes (-130) – 1.5 units
1st period BTTS (+210) – ¾ units
MacKinnon/McDavid Parlay Over ½ point (+132) -1 unit
Zach Werenski over ½ assist (+164) – ½ unit
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