Alexander Ovechkin Goals Record Chase Best Bets:
Alexander Ovechkin resumes his chase of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record when the top two teams in the NHL — the Washington Capitals (102 points) and Winnipeg Jets (100 points) meet tonight in Winnipeg. Ovi needs seven goals to pass Gretzky’s all-time mark of 894 goals. In their only other meeting against the Jets this season, six weeks ago in Washington, Ovechkin’s third-period goal tied the game at 4-4 before the Caps lost 5-4 in overtime. That goal upped his total to 55 goals in 73 games versus the Jets. It was his sixth goal in 13 games against Winnipeg goalie Connor Hellebuyck. I expect Hellebuyck to get the start again tonight.
The Capitals have 13 games remaining in the regular season, and at his current pace, it will take 11 games for Ovechkin to break the record. That would make the historic night April 13 at home versus the Columbus Blue Jackets, the team he scored his first NHL goal against. Those teams will also meet the night before in Columbus, giving bettors two shots in two days for Ovi to make history. That being the case explains why the Jackets are the betting favorite (-110 at FanDuel) to be the team that Ovi will pass Gretzky as the all-time goals leader. FanDuel is also offering a prop on which goalie he will score the record-setting goal against. Instead of wagering on the Blue Jackets, the better play would be to wager on Ovechkin scoring against either one of their goalies — Elvis Merzlikins (+350) or Daniil Tarasov (+400). Merzlikins was the backup goalie in the two previous meetings with the Capitals this season. For his career, Ovi has four goals in seven games against the Latvian goalie. He has three goals in three games against Tarasov, including the one time he faced him this season.
The next-best story would be for Ovechkin to break the record on the final day of the season (April 17) when they face Sidney Crosby and the Penguins. The two superstars have faced off against each other close to 100 times (regular season and playoffs). The Great 8 has 42 goals in 79 regular-season games against the Penguins. The Caps have scored 14 goals in three games against the Pens this season, but Ovechkin has none.
On Saturday, Ovechkin was held without a goal in the Capitals’ 6-3 win over Florida. Only once since the 4 Nations tournament in late February has Ovechkin gone consecutive games without scoring a goal. He has had one multi-goal game (three against Edmonton) and once had goals in consecutive games.
For tonight, I would attack his shots-on-goal prop (Over 3.5, 1 unit), an anytime goal, score a goal in the third period and score the last goal of the game. All goal props for me would be quarter-unit plays.
After the game in Winnipeg tonight and Minnesota on Thursday, the Caps will face the Sabres and Bruins (30 goals against in the last six games). Ovi has been held without a goal in the last three meetings with Buffalo but does have 41 goals in 65 games against the Sabres and a combined 10 goals in 20 games against their current tandem of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and James Reimer.
You can also target players to record an assist on the record-setting goal. Since the 4 Nations tournament, 12 players have assisted on an Ovechkin goal. Dylan Strome, who centers Ovi on the top line and No. 1 power play, and Aliaksei Protas, also part of the top power-play unit, have each assisted on two of his goals.
Schedule Odds for record goal Odds to score vs. teams’ goalies
March 25 at Winnipeg N/A N/A
March 27 at Minnesota +25000 Fleury +25000, Gustavsson +25000
March 30 vs Buffalo +9500 Luukkonen +15000, Reimer +25000
April 1 at Boston +3000 Swayman +4300, Korpisalo +13000
April 2 at Carolina +290 Andersen +500, Kochetkov +2100
April 4 vs Chicago +650 Knight +1000, Soderblom +5000
April 6 at NY Islanders +160 Sorokin +280, Hogberg +1700
April 10 vs Carolina +290 Andersen +500, Kochetkov +2100
April 12 at Columbus -110 Tarasov +350, Merzlikins +400
April 13 vs Columbus -110 Tarasov +350, Merzlikins +400
April 15 at NY Islanders +160 Sorokin +280, Hogberg +1700
April 17 at Pittsburgh +320 Jarry +900, Nedeljkovic +900
Team Ovechkin career goals vs. opposition
Winnipeg 55 goals in 73 games
Minnesota 20 goals in 24 games
Buffalo 41 goals in 65 games
Boston 29 goals in 66 games
Carolina 47 goals in 86 games
Chicago 15 goals in 23 games
NY Islanders 44 goals in 71 games
Columbus 26 goals in 49 games
Pittsburgh 42 goals in 78 games
Player Odds to assist on record goal
Dylan Strome -140
Aliaksei Protas +310
John Carlson +400
Tom Wilson +520
Martin Fehervary +560
Jakob Chychrun +750
Matt Roy +750
Pierre-Luc Dubois +1000
Andrew Mangiapane +1400
Trevor Van Riemsdyk +1700
Best Bets
Sorokin +280 to give up record goal
Merzlikins +400 to give up record goal
Jarry +900 to give up record goal
Strome -140 to assist on record goal
Carlson +400 to assist on record goal
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