MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Friday, April 11

Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: CLE is 21-4 (+17.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-130 vs. KC)

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 310-157 (66.4%) for +39.48 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-162 vs. MIL)

ATLANTA momentum after series vs. PHI: 21-12 (63.6%) +8.90 units, ROI: 27%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+110 at TB)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 165-99 for +43.07 units and a ROI of 16.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-125 at MIA), PHILADELPHIA (-125 at STL), TEXAS (-130 at SEA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 7-1 for +4.42 units. However, that can still be just two losses from going negative.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-192 vs CHC)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a good start, 10-2 for +5.84 units, a ROI of 48.7%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are slightly positive, 9-2 for +4.44 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-192 vs. CHC), SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 27-42 for -10.94 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-105 vs. WSH), SEATTLE (+105 vs. TEX), ATLANTA (+110 at TB), SAN FRANCISCO (+110 at NYY)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have been a blemish on our overall good start, as they are 24-38 for -12.04 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-105 vs. WSH), SEATTLE (+105 vs. TEX), ATLANTA (+110 at TB), SAN FRANCISCO (+110 at NYY)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in ’25 and so far it is 15-13 for -1.28 units.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): CLEVELAND (-130 vs. KC)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): TAMPA BAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, NY METS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
* Majority handle bettors on road teams in MARCH/APRIL of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, BOSTON, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, TEXAS, NY METS

MLB Series Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 333-256 for +42.93 units and an ROI of 7.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-130 vs. KC)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 84-135 for -47.94 units and a ROI of -21.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (+110 vs. TEX), ATHLETICS (+114 vs. NYM)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 265-231 but for -62.41 units and an ROI of -12.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-162 vs. PIT), BALTIMORE (-130 vs. TOR), HOUSTON (-155 vs. LAA), MINNESOTA (-118 vs. DET), NY YANKEES (-130 vs. SF)

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 116-48 but for +18.09 units and an ROI of 12.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-130 vs. ATL), NY YANKEES (-130 vs. SF)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 312-249 record for +62.67 units and an ROI of 11.2% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+130 at HOU), TEXAS (-130 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (+110 at NYY)
*watch for COLORADO at SD, +180 currently

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1705-1624 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -239.49 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-162 vs. MIL), LA ANGELS (+130 at HOU)

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1653-2114 (43.9%) for -185.66 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3458-3043 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -478.06 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 983-849 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +16.36 units for backers and an ROI of 0.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-130 vs. TOR), ATHLETICS (+114 vs. NYM)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 504-424 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.76 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-130 vs. TOR)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 310-157 (66.4%) for +39.48 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-162 vs MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 54-124 skid (-42.54 units, ROI: -23.9%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs BOS)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 69-153 (-63.44 units, ROI: -28.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs. BOS)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 193-193 run (+27.21 units, ROI: 7%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs BOS)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 156-173 (+4.51 units, ROI: 1.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs. BOS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MILWAUKEE +136 (+17 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -120 (+33 diff), BOSTON -162 (+30), NY YANKEES -130 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.9), SF-NYY OVER 8 (+0.7), COL-SD OVER 7 (+0.6), TEX-SEA OVER 6.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-TB UNDER 9 (-0.6), NYM-ATH UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.

(951) PITTSBURGH (5-8) at (952) CINCINNATI (5-8)
Trend: Brady Singer is 7-9 (-6.78 units) as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range
Trend Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-155 vs. PIT)

(957) COLORADO (3-9) at (958) SAN DIEGO (10-3)
Trend: Nick Pivetta is 9-2 (+4.77 units) as a favorite of -195 or higher (including 9-1 at home)
Trend Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. COL)

(963) KANSAS CITY (7-6) at (964) CLEVELAND (6-6)
Trend: CLE is 21-4 (+17.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-130 vs. KC)

(971) DETROIT (7-5) at (972) MINNESOTA (4-9)
Trend: Detroit is 6-3 (+3.91 units) vs. KC/MIN with starter Reese Olson
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT (-102 at MIN)

(973) TEXAS (9-4) at (974) SEATTLE (5-8)
Trend: Bryce Miller is 16-19 (-2.82 units) versus teams with a winning record in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match: FADE SEATTLE (+105 vs. TEX)

(979) NEW YORK-NL (8-4) at (980) ATHLETICS (5-8)
Trend: Griffin Canning is 1-12 (-12.07 units) on the road in the +105 to -130 line range in the last six years
Trend Match: FADE NY METS (*if they fall into this line range, -135 currently

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

ATLANTA
Momentum after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 21-12 (63.6%) +8.90 units, ROI: 27%
Next betting opportunity: Friday, April 11 at Tampa Bay
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+110 at TB)

MIAMI
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 11-20 (35.5%) -7.58 units, ROI: -24.5%
Next betting opportunity: Friday, April 11 vs. Washington
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+105 vs. WSH)

The post MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Friday, April 11 appeared first on VSiN.