Dinger Tuesday Picks – Tuesday April 15th

April 15th. Tax Day. And as they say… nothing in life is certain—except death, taxes, and the fact that half the home runs hit in Yankee Stadium wouldn’t leave the yard anywhere else.

I’m 90% sure that’s how the quote went.

If this is your first Dinger Tuesday, here’s a quick recap: FanDuel offers 50% profit boosts on any home run prop—eligible on one bet, every Tuesday. This works on both straight bets or parlays. Additionally, DraftKings is featuring a “No Sweat Home Run Bet,” allowing you to place a home run prop wager with a safety net—if your bet loses, you receive a bonus bet refund.

Every Tuesday you can expect home run prop bet handicapping here at VSiN, analyzing weather conditions, ballpark factors, batter vs pitcher matchups, extended splits, and more. It’s a great way to have a little fun on some exciting long shot bets. Let’s dive in.

Weather & Ballpark Report

Today’s weather report is showing favorable conditions in a few key ballparks: Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Yankee Stadium in New York, and Steinbrenner Field down in Tampa Bay.

Yankee Stadium leads the pack today, with strong winds blowing out to right field—straight toward that infamous short porch. Ideal launch conditions.

Cincinnati’s GABP is also showing solid carry, especially out to center. And down in Tampa, Steinbrenner Field’s warmer temps should give fly balls a little extra lift. It’s worth noting: Yankee Stadium and GABP have been two of the most home-run-friendly parks over the last 3 years, and as for Steinbrenner, this might be its first season in the spotlight—but early signs are promising. My count is at 36 home runs down in Tampa which is second in the majors. Worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses.

We’ll also be taking a look at Target Field, Oriole Field, PNC Park, & Globe Life Field. Conditions at these parks are all unfavorable towards hitters today, but feature the best pitching matchups of the day, so we can’t ignore it.

Out of those four above, Target Field and Globe Life Field have produced some of the most home runs over the last 3 years, with long balls being hit an 8% higher clip in Minnesota and 16% in Texas compared to the league average.

Pitcher Report

Today’s featured matchups are as follows:

Nationals at Pirates 6:40PM Eastern (Jake Irvin vs Mitch Keller)
Mariners at Reds 6:40PM Eastern (Luis Castillo vs Nick Lodolo)
Royals at Yankees 7:05PM Eastern (Michael Wacha vs Max Fried)
Red Sox at Rays 7:05PM Eastern (Walker Buehler vs Ryan Pepiot)
Guardians at Orioles 7:05 Eastern (Logan Allen vs Charlie Morton)
Mets at Twins 7:40PM Eastern (Tylor Megill vs Bailey Ober)
Angels at Rangers 8:05PM Eastern (Yusei Kikuchi vs Patrick Corbin)

We’re taking a look at these seven based on two main considerations: These games either feature a prime ballpark for dingers and/or they feature a pitcher who is prone to giving up the long ball – Jake Irvin (Washington), Charlie Morton (Baltimore), Bailey Ober (Minnesota), Yusei Kikuchi (LA Angels).

I threw some stats together below simply taking a look at home runs given up per batters faced.

Batter Report

I’m going to narrow this down to the following teams:

Reds (Castillo has shown to give up the long ball, and with favorable conditions in Cincinnati this could be a solid play.)
Red Sox (Pepiot is off to a rough start giving up 3 homers in his last outing at home. The rays are home again and with favorable conditions down in Tampa I like this angle.)
Mets (Ober gave up the 12th most home runs to opposing batters last year and with Target Field being generally a favorable ballpark for hitters it’s worth exploring.)

All things considered, these look like the best spots on the board. The pitching matchup in New York is too tough, and the park conditions in Baltimore and Pittsburgh aren’t doing hitters any favors. The Rangers are worth a look, sure—but I like our chances better with the other teams today.

Let’s see what the odds are saying:

Our options in order (via FanDuel Odds)

Let’s take a look at some batter stats courtesy of baseballsavant.

I’m really liking Trevor story here. Story is not only 1 for 2 with a home run against Pepiot in his career but he’s hitting the ball great right now. Batting .379 over his last. 7 with a decent EV and hard hit%. Seeing him come in at +600 feels like tremendous value.

In Cincinnati, it’s hard to look at any other guys besides McLain and Elly here. McLain is coming off injury with tonight being his first day back after missing the last 9 days due to a left hamstring strain so I’m going to stay away from him despite a nice price at +600. Elly on the other hand is showing great exit velocity and hard hit%. I think the matchup is great for him with Castillo giving up tons of homers to lefty batters (18 to lefties and 7 to righties in 2024).

As for the Mets, I think it’s time for Soto to really heat up. He launched a big one last night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes deep again today. He’s 2-for-4 lifetime against Ober and absolutely rakes against right-handed pitching.

After the game, Soto mentioned he hasn’t been seeing as many strikes as he did last season. Let’s hope Ober took the bait and decides to challenge him today. With Pete staying red-hot, pitchers might be more willing to take their chances with Soto—and that could be a mistake. Sure, +320 is a short price, but there’s real value today, and we’re grabbing it.

The Official Picks

1. Trevor Story +600
2. Elly De La Cruz +430
3. Juan Soto +320

The Nick Castellanos vs. Tragic Events Home Run Meter

Current status: Low

Taxes suck, but not enough to move the needle on Castellanos. It’s a no go for today.

Happy Dinger Tuesday folks. Let em hear it Big Al.

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